Reprinted here, with permission. Elizabeth Murphy writes in a Vancouver Sun op ed challenges the City’s numbers.
Excerpts: Vancouver’s housing strategy is based on population growth targets that are much higher than projections that census data would justify. City policies, programs and budget are based on faulty underlying assumptions. These unit projections were high even during the housing market expansion and do not reflect the current market correction. The housing strategy needs to be reconsidered.
… Even the city admits that we can’t build our way to affordability, but their policies intended to address the issues are only making things much worse. The current rental incentive programs are a case in point.
…. It is precisely this demolition of existing, more affordable rental buildings in commercial arterial districts that Coun. Jean Swanson’s motion going to council on June 12 is intended to address.
CHW note: Here is a link to the June 12 Council meeting and motion by Clr Swanson. See “Referred Items” “5. Protecting Rental Housing Stock along Arterial Streets.” This motion merits public support! https://council.vancouver.ca/20190612/pspc20190612ag.htm
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OPINION: The current Vision agenda needs to change if we are to have an affordable sustainable future for the people who live and work here in Vancouver.
Vancouver Sun
By Elizabeth Murphy
June 7, 2019 online, Print edition June 8, 2019 page H2
Vancouver’s housing strategy is based on population growth targets that are much higher than projections that census data would justify. City policies, programs and budget are based on faulty underlying assumptions. These unit projections were high even during the housing market expansion and do not reflect the current market correction. The housing strategy needs to be reconsidered.
The former Vision council approved these directions before being tossed in October’s election. Yet the new council has approved the plans and policies set in place, including the budget to implement them. Staff have been pushing through their agenda by guiding a mostly inexperienced council with advice that continues to be blindly followed.
An exception is Coun. Colleen Hardwick, who has been raising questions of staff at council meetings regarding the disconnect between unit targets and projected population growth.
The last census in 2016 showed a population increase for the city of about 28,000 people from 2011 to 2016 at a total of 631,500 people. Total private dwellings were 309,000 (including 25,500 unoccupied or occupied by temporary residents) with an average household size of 2.2 persons per unit. That averages 5600 people per year over one of the highest housing growth periods in Vancouver’s history.
Even if the population growth continued at this pace for the next 10 years it would only mean 56,000 more people. At 2.2 persons per unit that should be 26,000 more units.
However, the city’s targets for the next 10-year period is for 72,000 more units. That is more units than the 56,000 new people, if increases kept up with recent growth trends and almost three times the number of units that would be reasonably justified by population projections.
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