Zero-in on Support vs Oppose statistics for rezoning Public Hearings: Case study of 28-storey tower (Jameson) proposal at 2538 Birch (Council vote July 14), AHV letter generator and the need for better authentication

On July 9 and 10, 2020, a virtual Public Hearing was held for a rezoning to build a 28-storey tower at 2538 Birch Street (and Broadway). It is set to resume on July 14 (Tuesday) (see link) for the Mayor and Council’s final debate and vote to approve or reject the application. The applicant is Jameson Development, which already has a rezoning approved in 2018 for a 16-storey tower at the site, and a development application permit is actually in the works. However, this site is again before City Council to raise the height under the Moderate Income Rental Housing Pilot Program (MIRHPP), an incentive program of the City that comes at considerable cost. If Council rejects the application, Jameson can still go ahead and build 16 storeys of rental housing, which was well supported by the community at the previous rezoning.

In this article we zero in on the statistics of public comments the City received regarding the current rezoning application to go to 28 storeys. Why is this important? Because when deciding whether to approve or reject an application, Mayor and Council often look at the statistics of public support or opposition. But as we show below, they don’t get the full story from numbers provided by staff. So let’s have a look.

STATISTICS FROM CITY STAFF

As is typical in a rezoning, City staff’s presentation at the Public Hearing starting July 9, 2020, briefly mentioned the feedback that the City received at the Community Open House that had been held on June 27, 2019. As well, the staff report recommending the application go ahead to a Public Hearing (Referral Report) for 2538 Birch (see here) contained a fair amount of data about the feedback the City had received (i.e., graphs, statistics, summary of comments, etc.). But what was conspicuously absent from this data was a measure of support for and opposition to the newly proposed 28-storey building. This absence is strange. One would expect staff to present Mayor and Council with a final tally for the Yes/No question. With an issue like this, it’s important.

A DEEPER DIVE OF RESPONSES: INORDINATE RATIO OF RESPONDENTS WHO “SUPPORT” THE REZONING DON’T EVEN LIVE IN VANCOUVER

With information obtained by the Fairview/South Granville Action Committee through Freedom of Information (FOI) requests and shared with CityHallWatch, we can see more details about the public feedback received by the City (written, email and via online form) in relation to the Community Open House, during the period May 22, 2019 to February 12, 2020. The result? Analysis of postal codes provided reveals that the majority of Vancouverite residents responding said they were opposed to the proposed 28-storeys at 2538 Birch Street. Meanwhile, a substantial proportion of supporters for 28 storeys reside outside of the directly-affected neighbourhood, and in fact, outside of Vancouver. Some of the supporters are actually from as far away as White Rock, Maple Ridge and Prince George. See the summary table here.

Are there similar patterns in the correspondence the City received from the public prior to the Public Hearing? The City Clerk posts the correspondence in a table, as Support, Oppose, or Other. Respondents are asked to indicate where they reside. (See Public Hearing webpage here). Below is a graph of our tally of the City’s numbers. We see that 29% of Support comments are from outside Vancouver or unknown, in contrast to only 7% of Oppose comments.

Now, we find different results if we exclude the Support/Oppose numbers of persons who reside outside of Vancouver or in unknown places, but also count 730 signatories (only Vancouver residents) of petitions submitted by the local residents’ group, the Fairview/South Granville Action Committee. The table below shows the Support and Oppose numbers to be nearly equal.

AHV ONLINE LETTER GENERATOR SKEWS THE STATISTICS

However, a more careful review of the actual text of individual comments received by the City Clerk for the Public Hearing reveals something about comments from those who Support the rezoning. Many of the Support correspondence contain similar or identical wording. Such a pattern does not appear in the Opposed camp. Was some type of letter writing technology being used by supporters? Searching around, the answer is Yes. The Abundant Housing Vancouver (AHV) group is affiliated with lobby groups in several North American cities. Our text analysis suggests that 45% of the Support comments to the Public Hearing came via the AHV webpage here. Breakdown provided below, followed by a screenshot of their web page.

MAYOR AND COUNCIL NEED BETTER VERIFICATION OF PUBLIC FEEDBACK

The analysis above reveals many things about the way the City of Vancouver approaches public feedback, particularly for rezonings and Public Hearings. We see above that there is really a lack of attention given to the management and authentication of public input. The City currently has no systems to properly verify that public input is coming from residents and taxpayers of Vancouver. This failure to verify poses the real threat of skewing Council decisions. The City’s planning and rezoning staff use Support/Oppose statistics to justify their recommendations, and the City Mayor and Council must use public input as a key factor in their decision making. But if Public comments can be skewed as shown above, City Council would be making decisions based upon incorrect data. Going forward, Council and the City need to ensure data integrity and that, first and foremost, they are representing the interests of the people of Vancouver.

VANCOUVER RESIDENTS’ ATTITUDES TOWARD HIGH VS LOW RISE BUILDINGS

The analysis of statistics above reveals that there is significant opposition to 28 storeys at 2538 Birch Street. This attitude is probably common across the City. Mayor Kennedy Stewart probably knows that. A 2019 survey he conducted independently found that almost 40% of respondents do not want high-rises in their neighbourhoods. Conversely, over 80% supported buildings that are 6-storeys and smaller, as well as townhouses and homes. (See the graph below. The bars represent what people DO NOT want in their immediate neighbourhood.) The mayor’s own data shows that many Vancouverites are opposed to tall towers.